🧠 Did You See It Coming?


Last week, Tesla held one of the most-anticipated earnings releases of recent memory. Though its third-quarter report in October was largely solid, shares lost half their value in three months time.

With reports of tapped demand and rumors of a highly-distracted CEO circulating, everyone wanted to know: What is actually going on at Tesla?

The result of the report: it was a nothing-burger.

Sure, shares immediately rebounded. And fears of a worst-case scenario were assuaged. But there was no “Big Reveal” everyone was hoping for.

This underscores a crucial lesson for both investors and humans in general: the most consequential news you need to know will never be delivered on a schedule. That includes earnings schedules.

Consider three of the biggest business stories of the past quarter century:

  1. Enron Scandal: One of the biggest bankruptcies in history (2001)
  2. Lehaman Brothers files for bankruptcy, triggering global financial crisis (2008)
  3. COVID-19 Pandemic leads to massive shift in business operations (2020)

Who saw these coming beforehand? On New Years Day 2020, did you really think your kids would spend most of the next year out of school?

Because we are looking backwards at these events, it’s easy to integrate them into our life narrative. But life isn’t lived backwards.

What will be the biggest business story of 2023? The answer is simple: Something that almost no one is even thinking about right now.

How do you prepare for such an uncertain future? Live below your means; Focus on what’s most important in your life; Make sure you’ve taken all the prudent steps to protect yourself and your loved ones.

That might sound boring. And that’s ok. Capping your downside losses means you survive to live another day. And over time, that’s easily more than half of the battle.

– Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel & Brian Withers

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